The fears - that India's pace of growth could slow down further -- are coming true. Latest advance estimates from the government of India reveal that the country's GDP growth during 2016-17 is likely to grow at 7.1 percent, compared to 7.6 percent for 2015-16.According to the government's latest growth estimates, the pace of growth will be impacted by slowing growth in the manufacturing and mining sectors and also construction activity.
This estimate is in line with the forecast of India's central bank, Reserve Bank of India, which in its last monetary policy had forecast GDP growth to be at 7.1 percent for the twelve months ending March.
But this latest estimate does not consider the impact demonetization on the economy, "in the absence of sufficient information." While releasing the data, Chief Statistician T C A Anant said the figures for November were available and examined but "it was felt in view of the policy of denotification of notes there is a high degree of volatility in these figures and conscious decision was taken not make projection using the November figure".
This latest government estimate has been released almost a month before the standard release date of February 7.
According to the data released Friday: "the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices for 2016-17 from the mining and quarrying sector is estimated to decline by 1.8 percent, as compared to growth of 7.4 percent in 2015-16," a statement from the Central Statistics Office of the government said Friday evening. The GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from the manufacturing sector is estimated to grow by 7.4 percent, compared to growth of 9.3 percent in 2015-16, the data showed. The private corporate sector has a share of around 72 percent in the manufacturing sector.
Growth in the construction sector is also expected to slow down; with GVA at basic prices of 2.9 percent in 2016-17, compared to growth of 3.9 percent in 2015-16.
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